Employment Outlook Hopeful for Year End: Survey

An upbeat fourth quarter staffing picture is forecasted for Canadian job seekers according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
The survey of more than 1,700 Canadian employers revealed that 23 per cent plan to add to their payrolls while 10 per cent anticipate cutbacks for a Net Employment Outlook of 13 per cent.
With the seasonal variations removed from the survey data, the fourth quarter Net Employment Outlook of 17 per cent is a slight improvement from the previous quarter when the Outlook was 14 per cent, and up five per cent from the same time last year, indicating a positive end to 2004.
“Usually a restrictive hiring climate is prevalent in the fourth quarter,” said Lori Procher, Vice President and General Manager of Manpower Canada. “But this time around, the results are upbeat and among the best fourth quarters in the history of the survey.”
“Regionally the projections are similar to the national Net Employment Outlook, except for Western Canada which is forecasting more favourable results,” said Procher. “The West is anticipating an upbeat quarter with a Net Employment Outlook of 19 per cent whereas Quebec expects an Outlook of 12 per cent followed by Atlantic Canada at 11 per cent and Ontario at 10 per cent.”
Of the 10 surveyed sectors, employers in the Construction and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors have the strongest staffing projections, once seasonal variations are removed. The remaining sector employers expect a favourable quarter, with the Education, Financial, Insurance & Real Estate, and Services sectors being the most upbeat.
Construction Employers in the Construction sector should continue to experience solid staffing expectations with a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 22 per cent. This Outlook is up two per cent from the third quarter and is the same as the fourth quarter in 2003.
Education Employers in the Education sector forecast favourable growth in the fourth quarter of 2004 with a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 18 per cent. This is a significant increase from the third quarter where the Net Employment Outlook was zero per cent. This is an increase of two per cent from one year ago.
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate With 21 per cent of employers planning to hire and five percent anticipating cutbacks, a respectable fourth quarter is expected for the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector. The seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 19 per cent represents a six per cent increase from the previous three months and a nine per cent increase from a year ago.
Manufacturing – Durable Goods An upbeat fourth quarter is projected for employers in the Manufacturing Durable Goods sector where a Net Employment Outlook of 12 per cent is expected with seasonal variations removed. This is a modest increase of four per cent from the third quarter and the most optimistic fourth quarter for the sector since 2000.
Manufacturing – Non-durable Goods Employers in the Manufacturing Non-durable Goods sector foresee steady growth with a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 15 per cent. This is an encouraging increase of eight per cent from the previous quarter and a seven per cent increase from the same time last year.
Mining The staffing outlook for the Mining sector is positive with a Net Employment Outlook of 16 per cent after seasonal variations are removed. This is a decrease of eight per cent from the previous three months but is similar to the results reported for the first and second quarters of 2004.
Public Administration The staffing picture for the Public Administration sector is expected to remain positive with a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 16 per cent. The Outlook is one per cent greater than the third quarter and equal to the fourth quarter of 2003, indicating stable hiring levels for the remainder of the year.
Services Employers in the Services sector project a favourable staffing climate with a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 18 per cent. This is a modest increase of five per cent from the previous quarter and an improvement of seven per cent from the same time last year.
Transportation & Public Utilities The staffing projection for this sector remains respectable with a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 14 per cent, unchanged from the previous quarter. This is a decrease from a year ago when the Outlook was 18 per cent indicating a disappointing end to the year.
Wholesale & Retail Trade The Wholesale & Retail Trade sector continues to be one of the strongest sectors in the country with a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 20 per cent. While this is a slight decrease from the third quarter and the same time last year, employers in this sector experienced their best overall year since 2001.
About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in Canada is based on interviews with more than 1,700 public and private employers in 43 markets across the country and is considered a highly respected economic indicator. The margin of error for the Canadian survey is +/- 2.4 per cent. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.