Supply chain most optimistic about early end to pandemic pain

Further analysis into the Automotive Industries Association of Canada’s business confidence survey suggests the supply chain is most optimism about an early recovery in 2020.

Some 63% of supply chain respondents in the AIA’s recent Business Operations Survey said they expect to see signs of recovery within the next month. Only 18% of supply chain respondents saw things deteriorating further in the next 30 days.

That is notably more optimistic than mechanical service shops (41% expecting early signs of recovery) and collision repair shops (31%).

AIA released the new analysis after concluding that the disproportionately high number of collision shops that responded may have skewed the original findings, released May 11.

According to the new data, which breaks out supply chain, mechanical repair and collision repair into separate sectors, supply chain also reported the least impact on business.

The biggest cohort of supply chain respondents, (27%) reported a revenue decrease of 21-30%. Among mechanical repair shops, the biggest cohort (39%) reported a revenue decrease of more than 50%. Among collision shops, the biggest cohort (43%) reported a revenue decrease of more than 50%.

The survey tabulated responses from 71 mechanical and tire shops, 183 collision shop, and 74 supply chain business (jobber stores, warehouse distributors, mass retailers, manufacturers).

As originally reported, the overall impact of Covid-19 was severe, with 94% of respondents describing their business operations as disrupted, 61% of them “very disrupted.” Two percent reported complete shut-down. Only 4% said it has been business as usual this year (although, even then, a third of these respondents admitted to a decrease of 50% or more in April 2020).

Mobility trends show that traffic to workplaces in mid-May was down by 51%, and travel for retail and recreation was down 38%. At the peak of the crisis, in early April, all traffic diminished by about 80%.